Analysis and projections of wheat production in Bosnia and Herzegovina using ARIMA modeling

NEMANJA JALIĆ1*, ALEKSANDAR OSTOJIĆ1
, ŽELJKO VAŠKO1
1Department of agricultural economics and rural development, University of Banja Luka, Faculty of Agriculture, Bulevar Vojvode Petra
Bojovića 1A, Bosnia and Herzegovina
*Nemanja Jalić; e-mail: nemanja.jalic@agro.unibl.org,

 

Abstract:
Wheat is one of the most important field crops in Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H) and on second place in terms of
sown areas and the volume of production. It is also one of the most widespread cereals in the world, and according
to the total sown areas, wheat is in the first place. Wheat is especially important for nutrition of the population and
is often used as a substitute for corn as fodder. Despite the large volume of production, B&H has a low degree of
self-sufficiency in wheat. This paper analyzes wheat production in B&H based on the time series of data from 1998
to 2020, and the forecast a wheat production in the domestic market for a five-year period applaying ARIMA
modeling. In the analyzed period, wheat production had a average volume about 256.000 tons a year and decreased
at an average rate of (RG-0.26%). However, the coefficient of variation shows the variability of production in the
observed period (CV = 20.77%). The subject of the research is the projection of wheat production in B&H using the
EViews 10 program, where ARIMA models were applied for forecast purposes. The aim of the research is to forecast
the wheat production for a period of five years (2021-2025) based on the Box-Jenkins methodology. The data
required for forecasting were taken from the FAOSTAT database. Based on the selected ARIMA (1, 1, 10) model,
the trend of decreasing in wheat production in B&H is expected and in the next five years. It can be concluded that
in the forecasted period, production will fall by in average of 3.1% each year. Variability of the forecasted production
trend may be influenced by extreme manifestations of climatic factors, as well as unpredictable price movements in
the regional and world markets, as well as government policy measures in regard to grain production.

Post Author: MVhDC39RHa