FNEMANJA JALIĆ1*, ALEKSANDAR OSTOJIĆ1, ŽELJKO VAŠKOĆ1
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1 Department of agricultural economics and rural development, University of Banja Luka, Faculty of Agriculture, Bulevar Vojvode Petra Bojovića 1A, Bosnia and Herzegovina * Nemanja Jalić; e-mail: nemanja.jalic@agro.unibl.org, Abstract Wheat is one of the most important field crops in Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H) and on second place in terms of sown areas and the volume of production. It is also one of the most widespread cereals in the world, and according to the total sown areas, wheat is in the first place. Wheat is especially important for nutrition of the population and is often used as a substitute for corn as fodder. Despite the large volume of production, B&H has a low degree of self-sufficiency in wheat. This paper analyzes wheat production in B&H based on the time series of data from 1998 to 2020, and the forecast a wheat production in the domestic market for a five-year period applaying ARIMA modeling. In the analyzed period, wheat production had a average volume about 256.000 tons a year and decreased at an average rate of (RG-0.26%). However, the coefficient of variation shows the variability of production in the observed period (CV = 20.77%). The subject of the research is the projection of wheat production in B&H using the EViews 10 program, where ARIMA models were applied for forecast purposes. The aim of the research is to forecast the wheat production for a period of five years (2021-2025) based on the Box-Jenkins methodology. The data required for forecasting were taken from the FAOSTAT database. Based on the selected ARIMA (1, 1, 10) model, Keywords: Wheat production, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Forecasting, ARIMAalysis |