OLSID MEMA1*, ETLEVA JOIC1
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1 Faculty of Agriculture and Environment, Agricultural University of Tirana, 1025, Kodër Kamëz, Tirana, Albania
Abstract Accurate land suitability assessment is fundamental to sustainable agricultural planning, yet the reliability of GISbased Multi-Criteria Evaluation (GIS-MCE) models remains sensitive to the subjective assignment of criterion weights. This study presents a systematic One-At-a-Time (OAT) sensitivity analysis of a wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) suitability model developed for the Frakulla Administrative Unit, Fieri Municipality, southwestern Albania. The baseline suitability map was constructed using a Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) approach, integrating five main criterion groups: climatic conditions, physical soil properties, biological and chemical soil characteristics, flood and erosion risk, and infrastructure accessibility, with weights derived through the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). All criteria were standardized into four suitability classes (Not Suitable, Marginally Suitable, Moderately Suitable, and Highly Suitable) across a 30 × 30 m raster grid. Sensitivity was evaluated through systematic ±10% and ±20% weight perturbations applied independently to each criterion group, generating 20 perturbation scenarios in total. Spatial agreement with the baseline classification ranged from 71.3% to 89.1%, indicating high model stability under weight perturbations. These results provide a quantitative uncertainty assessment that strengthens the scientific credibility of the wheat suitability map and offers actionable guidance for evidence-based agricultural land use planning in the Fieri region. Keywords: Analytic Hierarchy Process; Crop-land suitability analysis; GIS-based Multi-Criteria Evaluation; Model Uncertanity; OAT sensitivity analysis; Weighted Linear Combination; |
