MAJLINDA ÇAKALLI1*
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1Department of Economics and Rural Development Policies, Agricultural University of Tirana, Albania
Abstract This paper develops an empirical framework to evaluate the feasibility and macrofinancial implications of launching retail government bonds for individuals in Albania. Using official quarterly debt bulletins from the Ministry of Finance (2015–2025), we document a persistently bank-dominated domestic government-securities market: in 2025, banks hold 66.07% of domestically issued securities, while individuals hold 8.91%, down from ~15% in 2015–2018. We complement these statistics with debt sustainability and risk metrics (end‑2025 debt-to-GDP 53.04%; debt maturing within one year 39.2%; average maturity 2.8 years) and examine the retail investment incentive through the spread between deposit rates (~1.9% in 2024) and sovereign yields across maturities (2025 average 12‑month ~2.69%, 5‑year ~3.79%). Drawing on OECD cross-country evidence on sovereign retail debt programs, we define design parameters— distribution channels, purchase caps, pricing rules, redemption features, and digital infrastructure—then implement a calibrated scenario model quantifying (i) potential shifts in the investor base (from banks to households), (ii) possible deposit substitution and credit-supply effects, and (iii) funding-cost impacts under alternative pricing rules. The resulting research design produces testable hypotheses and a reproducible pipeline for policy evaluation and future causal inference once program roll-out data become available. Keywords: retail government bonds, public debt management, investor base diversification, domestic debt market, household savings mobilization, Albania |